The Republican Party of Virginia (RPV) voted today by a margin of 47-37 to hold a convention rather than a primary to select the GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate race in 2008. A convention would cost less and involve only core conservatives, as opposed to a primary which would cost more, but be open to all Republicans, as well as independents and even Democrats. Jim Gilmore has no money and little crossover appeal with moderates and indepedents, while Tom Davis has a lot of money and has based his political career off of appealing to moderates and independents. Thus, a convention is a tacit endorsement of Jim Gilmore to be the GOP nominee in 2008, and a primary is a tacit endorsement of Tom Davis to be the nominee.
Since Jim Gilmore is a stooge who drove the state to ruin seven years ago, then embarassed himself and Virginia with a ridiculous “campaign” for President earlier this year (campaign is in quotation marks, because I don’t know in what reality his fumbling idiocy would be considered as such), he cannot possibly compete with his successor, Gov. Mark Warner, in a general election. Many on this site and others know that I truly believe that Tom Davis can compete with Warner and keep the race competitive and in the “toss-up” category through Election Day. Jim Gilmore cannot, and the very prospect of his nomination inches Virginia more blue. Today, the RPV took a step closer to that prospect, and in all practical effect, has endorsed Mark Warner to be the next Senator from Virginia.
The question is now what Tom Davis decides to do. From what I can see, he has five options:
1) Run for the Senate anyways, keeping consistent on his record, and lose the nomination to Gilmore. ***
2) Run for the Senate anyways, tack to the far right to win the nomination, then lose to Mark Warner for being a flip-flopper who lost his grip with the center.
3) Run for re-election in the House, which is not assured but would be easier than a run for the Senate.
4) Retire from the House and start prepping for a 2012 challenge to Jim Webb.
5) Retire from politics altogether after being sold down the river by his party when he tried to offer them their once chance at holding the seat.
*** It isn’t clear whether Davis would be able to run for his seat if he lost at the convention.
Tom Davis has never aspired to be Governor, and with three strong candidates already (Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling, and George Allen) fighting for the nomination, I don’t see him trying to elbow his way in.
Meanwhile, Jim Gilmore will be lucky to raise a million dollars and get more than 45% of the vote against Mark Warner. On the plus side, the NRSC no longer has a reason to invest in the state. I’m not one to give up on a race (I still believe Montana and New Jersey can be competitive this cycle), especially since I live in Virginia and don’t want Mark Warner to be the next Senator. But since the majority of the RPV Executive Committee disagrees with that goal, I see no reason to hope beyond hope in favor of a turd like Jim Gilmore.
There is still a chance that Tom Davis may be the nominee and that the race will be close, but that chance just got a lot fatter. Congratulations, Democrats, you’ve just practically banked a Senate seat, and you barely had to fight for it.
Tough breaks for Davis. You have to seriously question whether he actually jumps into this race anymore.
Retire from the House in anticipation of a bid against Jim Webb in 2012? Yes, he’ll likely have a tough re-election campaign this year to the House, but if he bails now, he’d be out of politics for four years come 2012. That suits me just fine, of course, but I doubt he’d do it.
What really sucks for Davis is that he has been telling people, “All systems go” for his senate race, then his political party bends over their stronger candidate against Warner… It really doesn’t make any sense at all.
The only benefit for Republicans is they have a better chance of saving the CD-11 Seat by trying to keep Davis from running for senate… But I don’t see him doing that. So there is no real benefit for the Republican party.
Unless you can get Rehberg or Racicot or even Judy Martz to run I can’t see Baucus breaking a sweat. And New Jersey? Maybe Christie Whitman or former Governor Kean could beat Lautenberg but not the nobodies currently running.